The power of data in 'new normal' network planning

As we emerge from lockdown, it is clear that the bus networks of the future will be very different to what they were just six short months ago.

It has led us to consider that future and ponder some of the changes we can expect to see in our latest CitySwift eBook, ‘Bus Network Development Strategy for the ‘New Normal’.

It has been a period of significant change for bus operators up and down the country, but nowhere has that change been greater than at National Express West Midlands, the UK's largest bus operator outside London. They have worked closely with us at CitySwift to deploy the power of our bus data engine, providing insights that will help them to prepare and react in the weeks and months ahead as the economy, and bus passenger numbers, rebuild.

We have been working closely with them for some time, initially on a pilot that saw our SwiftMetrics network analysis technology deployed on a single route last November. The results were immediate and impressive: a 3% increase in reliability and efficiency improvements without any change to the frequency of the service. 

The positive experience of using our technology in the pilot led to a broader deployment across the entire network. The coronavirus pandemic has been an excellent testbed for SwiftMetrics. Last month Andy Foster, Deputy Commercial Director at National Express West Midlands, revealed how the operator had undertaken six full reschedules of its entire network during the first 70 days of lockdown. As Andy noted, the operator had never changed absolutely everything at once at any point in the last three decades.

To gain further insight into those changes, we spoke to bus network design specialist Adam Hawksworth, who was the Head of Network Development at National Express West Midlands during this hectic period. He describes those early days during the lockdown as "more complicated than anything we have seen before". 

"The team were turning out timetables over and over again. My job was focusing on what the network should look like," Adam reveals. "I was monitoring the passenger numbers on every journey at every stop, keeping an eye on what we needed to do and how we might need to react tomorrow, next week, next month and next year."

The starting point for Adam and his colleagues was to set a reliable benchmark, using data from February and March, together with all of 2019. Meanwhile, they began to look at the experiences of transport operators overseas. "We were trying to spot trends," he reveals. "We were reviewing what was happening in other countries and how they were reacting to the pandemic and various types of restrictions. It allowed us to prepare and think about how we would react."

"We were trying to spot trends. We were reviewing what was happening in other countries and how they were reacting to the pandemic and various types of restrictions. It allowed us to prepare and think about how we would react."

It became clear that a simple switch to a Sunday schedule wouldn't be a viable option to keep key workers moving in the West Midlands. Meanwhile, there were concerns about the need to ensure social distancing.

Adam continues: "It wasn't long before we saw patronage going back up and we were putting additional resources back in wherever needed to ensure social distancing. We had spare drivers and spare buses available in the city centre so that we could react to any problems in real-time. As soon as we saw passenger numbers starting to creep back up, or when we started using duplicates regularly, we started to schedule them back in."

"It wasn't long before we saw patronage going back up and we were putting additional resources back in wherever needed to ensure social distancing. We had spare drivers and spare buses available in the city centre so that we could react to any problems in real-time. As soon as we saw passenger numbers starting to creep back up, or when we started using duplicates regularly, we started to schedule them back in."

Meanwhile, Adam's and his team began to look at the future and what the recovery would mean for patronage, revenue and costs. "We need to start thinking about how we rebalance the business. The focus on social distancing and government support is a short term distraction," he explains. "We don't want to miss any opportunities to tap into resurgent demand, and have to be looking further than the end of our noses! If we concentrate on the numbers we have today, compared to yesterday, then we are going to end up with a very different network to what we had just a few months ago. The temptation to cut is all too great. We have to broaden our thinking."

"The temptation to cut is all too great. We have to broaden our thinking."

The need to have the latest data to hand, quickly, and in an innovative format, led National Express West Midlands to deploy SwiftMetrics across its entire network. Adam says it was a decision that allowed the company to work far faster than ever before.

"It is remarkably quick," he explains. "Once the ticket machine data has gone into the data engine, it's just a quick refresh, and we can see what was happening yesterday on a route by route basis. Previously it was taking me hours to interrogate the data manually, but with CitySwift, it's a quick tap of a button, and it's there. And because the data is presented consistently and looks great too, it means you can present it to internal stakeholders straight away."

"Previously it was taking me hours to interrogate the data manually, but with CitySwift, it's a quick tap of a button, and it's there. And because the data is presented consistently and looks great too, it means you can present it to internal stakeholders straight away."

And that data will have a crucial role to play in influencing external stakeholders too. Adam believes that the key to unleashing the power of the bus in urban areas is data-driven, now more than ever. He says "We have to provide compelling evidence to local transport authorities about how buses can improve cities. It's a win-win. Sometimes the smallest of changes to infrastructure can make a big difference. We have to come up with smart interventions to make that a reality."

"Congestion is not going to get any better," he says. "While it's a fantastic time to start reshaping and rethinking networks for the future, it's also a very worrying time if we can't get our key partners at the transport authorities and councils on-side and get them to believe in the bus. That will not aid our recovery. So we must have the evidence to stimulate the debate and prove what the benefits are. Data has a massive role to play."

Adam foresees other issues too - in particular, customers are more aware of their journey choices. Getting the customer experience right is vital. For example, when journeys involve more than one bus - what will the connection be like? Will the bus be busy? How long will you have to wait? Adam suggests there's a case for reintroducing cross-city services, using detailed data to distinguish where people are travelling into the city centre.

"Of course that's going to need bus operators and the local transport authorities to come together and look at how they can identify priority measures that will guarantee buses can move smoothly across the city centre," he adds. "Our emphasis should be on ensuring we have data that is robust enough to make that case. That's where CitySwift's data can make a huge difference.”

"Our emphasis should be on ensuring we have data that is robust enough to make that case. That's where CitySwift's data can make a huge difference.”